Due to low inventory levels and expectations of demand growth after the year, low-end quotations for refrigerants continued to rise, and retail order transactions gradually followed suit. The price increase of R152a began to accelerate due to destocking and increased demand for low GWP varieties. Recently, the market has raised the price to 23000-24000 yuan/ton. In terms of foreign trade, due to the current process of obtaining export licenses, the export volume has not yet recovered rapidly, and the quotation frequency is slightly slower, but the market prices of many products are in sync with the domestic market. In terms of specific varieties, the market price of R22 small packaging is slowly rising, and factories are shipping a small amount of loose water. There are concerns about the supply after this year's reduction, and the trend is difficult to change upwards; R32 long-term agreement orders have been signed, and the scattered water and export markets are expected to rebound significantly after the Spring Festival. The production load of enterprises is expected to increase, and air conditioning enterprises are mainly responsible for ensuring supply. After the Spring Festival, domestic and foreign demand is strong, and scattered water shipments continue to rise; The shortage of R134a supply is difficult to alleviate, with scattered water controlled shipments and low factory inventory triggering enthusiasm for channel procurement; Due to the maintenance plan of some enterprises during the Spring Festival, the actual transactions in the R152a market have gradually increased, and there is a clear intention for factories to significantly raise prices in the future; R404 and R507 are gradually being transmitted due to the price increase of R143 and R125 raw materials, and low-priced sources in the circulation market are gradually being digested. The current high factory offers are stimulating market reversal.
Based on the current performance of the refrigerant market, the destocking of the industry in 2024 will become a booster for the market to reach a new high in 2025, and the upward trend will not change.