[reprint ]Citigroup predicts a copper supply shortage of 136000 tons by 2025

       According to foreign reports on February 18th, Citigroup lowered its copper price forecast for 6-12 months on Tuesday and adjusted its expected quarterly average price weakness to later this year, citing a reduced likelihood of substantial and widespread US tariffs taking effect in the first quarter.

      The bank currently predicts that the average price of copper will be $8500 per ton in the next 6 to 12 months, lower than the previous estimate of $9000.

      The three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed at $9472 per ton on Tuesday. Last Friday, it reached its highest level in three months at $9684.50.

     The bank stated in a report, "We believe that the strength of base metal prices and physical markets may continue until early April, until the implementation of broader tariffs in the United States in the second quarter of 2025.

    Citigroup has revised its copper supply-demand balance and expects a slight supply gap of approximately 136000 tons by 2025.

     The bank also expects that the one-year forward copper arbitrage spread on COMEX-LME may widen to around $1400 per ton due to the effective import tariff of 15% in the United States.

     Citigroup further predicts that copper end use consumption will increase by 1.7% in 2025, reflecting potential headwinds from tariffs and restrictive monetary policies in developed markets.