In March, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 63900 tons month on month, with a growth rate of 6.04% and a year-on-year increase of 12.27%. The cumulative production from January to March increased by 274500 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 9.4%.
The electrolytic copper production in March increased significantly as scheduled, mainly due to the following reasons: 1. According to our statistics, only two smelters had maintenance plans in March, but the impact on actual production was not significant. Some manufacturers indicated that the maintenance impact would be reflected in April; Although the processing fee for copper concentrate is currently at a historical low (as of March 28th, the weekly index of imported copper concentrate is -24.14 US dollars/ton), many smelters are still actively producing in order to start production in the first quarter; 3. The capacity utilization rate of newly put into operation smelters in Southwest China is improving; Recently, the price of sulfuric acid has continued to rise, which has to some extent compensated for the losses of smelters. 5. Copper prices have risen significantly, and the supply of scrap copper has increased compared to before. Smelters have increased their procurement of scrap copper to supplement the shortage of copper concentrate.
In summary, the sample operating rate of the electrolytic copper industry in March was 87.68%, an increase of 4.86 percentage points compared to the previous month; The operating rate of large smelters was 91.43%, up 4.8 percentage points from the previous month, the operating rate of medium-sized smelters was 81.37%, up 4.56 percentage points from the previous month, and the operating rate of small smelters was 71.63%, up 6.78 percentage points from the previous month. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters increased by 4.7 percentage points compared to the previous period, reaching 91.7%; The operating rate of smelters without copper concentrate (scrap copper or anode plates) increased by 5.7 percentage points compared to the previous period, reaching 68.1%. The increase in raw material supply led to an increase in operating rate.
Entering April, according to our statistics, there are currently three smelters with maintenance plans, with an estimated impact of around 24000 tons. In addition, although the supply of copper concentrate is currently tight and some smelters have begun to reduce the feeding amount of copper concentrate, the production of electrolytic copper has remained stable by increasing the feeding amount of waste copper and anode plates. Finally, with the commissioning of new smelters in East China and the increase in capacity utilization of smelters in Southwest China, the total output has only slightly decreased.
SMM predicts that the domestic electrolytic copper production in April will decrease by 0.58 million tons month on month, with a decrease of 0.52%, and increase by 131200 tons year-on-year, with an increase of 13.32%, based on the production schedule of each company. The cumulative production from January to April increased by 405700 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 10.39%. The sample operating rate of the electrolytic copper industry in April was 87.34%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points compared to the previous month; The operating rate of large smelters was 91.2%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points compared to the previous period, the operating rate of medium-sized smelters was 80.83%, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points compared to the previous period, and the operating rate of small smelters was 70.90%, a decrease of 0.73 percentage points compared to the previous period. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters is 91.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous period; The operating rate of smelters without copper concentrate (scrap copper or anode plates) is 67.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous period. Finally, we expect that production will continue to decline in May, mainly due to increased maintenance at smelters and tight supply of raw materials.