The trend of copper prices in the first half of 2025 has been fluctuating. Against the backdrop of increasing expectations of supply reduction, the overall focus of copper prices is relatively strong, breaking through the 80000 yuan mark again in the first quarter. However, due to the adjustment of overseas trade policies, copper prices hit the daily limit down and opened lower in April. Afterwards, low prices stimulated demand, and prices entered a period of upward recovery. Entering a long sideways phase after May. As of June 23, 2025, the average spot price of 1 # electrolytic copper in China was 78345 yuan/ton, an increase of 4575 yuan/ton or 6.20% from the end of last year. The average price in the first half of the year was 78647.55 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 3.43%.
In the face of the unknown second half of the year, reporters from "Refrigeration Express" interviewed several industry insiders. Experts believe that copper prices may show an "N-type" trend in the second half of 2025: in the third quarter, they may hit the $10000/ton mark under the support of supply disturbance and peak season demand, but in the fourth quarter, with the decline of external demand and exposure of macro risks, prices may fall back to the range of $9200-9500/ton.
Although institutions such as Goldman Sachs have raised their 2025 copper price peak forecast to $10050 per ton, the probability of copper prices continuing to rise unilaterally in the second half of the year is decreasing, and the market will enter a volatile pattern of "top and bottom". The core contradiction lies in the game between rigid constraints on the supply side and a decline in external demand on the demand side.
The marginal weakening of supply side disturbance factors. As the expected resumption of production at the Cobre Panama copper mine in Panama heats up, the global increase in copper production may be raised from the expected 640000 tons to 780000 tons, with the supply shortage narrowing compared to the first half of the year.
The demand side is facing structural adjustments. The escalation of global trade frictions has had an impact on export-oriented economies, with the EU imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and the US continuing to implement reciprocal tariff policies, which may put pressure on export orders for Chinese end products such as household appliances and automobiles.
The macro risk premium has increased. The path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has fluctuated due to repeated inflation, and the market's expectation for the December 2025 interest rate has been revised up from 3.5% to 3.75%. The rebound of the US dollar index has suppressed copper prices. The potential tariff policy changes and geopolitical escalation risks of the Trump administration may trigger a rise in market risk aversion, leading to significant short-term fluctuations in copper prices.
