The long-term contract price for R32 in the second quarter was 46600 yuan/ton, an increase of about 6000 yuan/ton compared to the previous quarter.
In 2025, the performance of second-generation refrigerants will be accelerated and reduced, while the quota system for third-generation refrigerants will continue. The concentration of industries such as R22 and R32 will be high; Affected by factors such as national subsidy policies, inventory replenishment in Europe and America, and demand growth in emerging regions such as Southeast Asia, the production and scheduling of air conditioners at home and abroad have significantly increased. With the rapid contraction of supply and the support of the air conditioning maintenance market, it is expected that there will be a supply-demand gap for second-generation refrigerants such as R22 by 2025; Although the supply of third-generation refrigerant R32 has slightly increased year-on-year, the inventory will be depleted by 2024, and the demand side will also show rapid growth. It is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in 2025. Guoxin Securities pointed out that in the second quarter, driven by the high temperature weather in summer, refrigerant consumption is about to enter the traditional peak season, and trading activity is gradually increasing under the background of low inventory. AVIC Securities believes that the current low inventory combined with the determination of top companies to raise prices and the reluctance to sell in the refrigerant industry chain may trigger a new wave of price increases for refrigerants in the second quarter. Fangzheng Securities pointed out that refrigerants are one of the largest and most widely used sub sectors in the fluorine chemical industry. The Montreal Protocol has promoted the generational change of refrigerants. Currently, the refrigerant industry is facing accelerated reduction of second-generation refrigerants, frozen quotas for third-generation refrigerants, and patent protection periods for fourth generation refrigerants. Against the backdrop of strong supply constraints and concentrated industry patterns, the prices of second-generation and third-generation refrigerants are in an upward cycle. The downstream air conditioning and automotive industries are expected to maintain a growth trend, and third-generation refrigerants are expected to rise in both quantity and price.