Global economic growth forecast lowered, copper prices fluctuate within range [Institutional commentary]

      Last week, copper prices remained volatile, mainly due to the IMF lowering its global economic growth forecast for this year from 3.3% to 2.8%. Federal Reserve officials stated that if the job market significantly deteriorates, the Fed will initiate interest rate cuts; On the domestic front, industrial enterprise profits have turned from negative to positive, and the central bank has launched MLF net injections to provide liquidity to the market, leading to a continuous acceleration of China's economic cycle. From a fundamental perspective, the negative value of spot TC has fallen to -40 US dollars, while the premium of domestic spot trade remains high, and the B-structure of the market has narrowed.

     Overall, the IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast, and the low rebound of the US dollar index has hindered the upward trend of copper prices; The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in China has turned positive, and the central bank has launched MLF net investment. Under the "two new" policies, the internal circulation of the Chinese economy continues to accelerate. From a fundamental perspective, the mid-term tightening pattern of concentrate remains unchanged, with a decline in domestic refined copper imports and a continued decline in social inventories. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile, awaiting further clarification of the US China trade situation.